One election in December

The presupposed anomaly of the Electoral College, an 18th century institution (thus junior, by half a millennium, to the Anglo-British Parliament and the more compartmentalised body of the man who first summoned, and maybe even envisioned it) is not unlikely to come into question regardless of the outcome in the contest which, if we are to believe our compatriots, have come to signal the division in American politics, certainly from the liberal perspective that the once party of Lincoln - not unanimously heralded as beacon of decency, progress, unity in those days - has given up on democracy in favour of at best an oligarchic republic, at worst a ochlocratic-plutocratic tyranny - the terrible, uneducated masses once scorned by Madison, now by the most fervent supporters of the same masses - and the universal rule by the most wrinkled hand stuffing the least thought-out and clearly-marked ballot through a slit of peaceful, equal opportunity. One might be forgiven for believing the Democratic Party, either in its many historic (or its more histrionic) incarnations would adhere categorically to such an order, but 

My predictions, less exciting this time than last time I hope, sways within the very proverbial margin of error. A Trump reelection, an extension of the power grab (or grab by the power) for another quadrennial cycle (into his 79th year, lest we are finally to reconcile with the alliteration President Pence - socialists, Kekists and rowdy "conservatives" of shambolic ecclesiastical merits) would through the extension of this year of election - as opposed to a "mere (presidential) election year" - have evolved from quite likely, in face of unknown and certainly divided, if less than last time, again - and at any rate unstirring, if quite stirred, opposition, then into less likely with the onset of the pandemic - and the inevitable economic damage that would follow, humanitarian atrocity and rallying around the government (here questionable) nonwithstanding, into finally accepting the possibility that 2016 might be "repeated"; now with a soft whimper and a tedious proclamation, and little fear of Russian bots and hackers in the future sense, rather than a bang of fascist terror. 

Something you didn't expect to see four years past, right? Now did you? Like Piter, the servant Mike stands in the background, loyal to a certain point. If ushered in for another unthinkable quadriannual cycle, we may yet see how far. Unless, the impossibility striking again, the red team are all aligned to him, short of a few belligerent, quite ambiguous Gauls. 

In my view, if this were to occur, most of those most fervently proclaiming the rebirth of said fascism; not that of mass killings, concentration camps, swift and brutal suppression galore of opposition inside legislature and without, but of something akin to it, post-modern and soft and rhetorical rather than material (the latter, and the Leninist analysis of classic fascismo, begging the question why financiers, while seldom openly hostile, have not succumbed to avaricious support in face of this newfangled rainbow Bolshevism, and endeared to the case for capitalism to a tally far higher than the Trump campaign of 2016). Ah yes, add to that the successful, not in the trial in the Senate, but very rowdy impeachment of this year; the third of the republic, and to many seemingly as legitimate as the one that never was. Although, the question seemingly never posed by Pelosi, or anyone else, whether this opinion (or rather, as repeated beyond nauseatingly, sentiment) was held by the prospective median voter - and whether (s)he would remember it, a full nine months later. 

In this, I must admit I held the possibility open - for all the dullness that it seems to harrow - a Biden administration expanding on the never-inaugurated Clinton administration, a pang of historic accomplishment and adjudication followed by what was optimistically marketed and branded as a "third Obama term" (hence assuming we would forget the many reasons why, and attacks leveled to prevent or at the very least postpone the first) and by the laws of "normalcy" now broken (with an asterisk to professor Allan Lichtman whose formula, remember, now heralds Trump's defeat) would seem the likelier choice in such a time, and year, of tumultuous change and decay. 1968, with some care, would perhaps serve a better comparison than Germany in 1932, let alone in 1936, as we're now told is the relevant analogy. Now, Lichtman was not wrong in 2016, and as much as every confounded and exploded detractor of his thesis was even quicker to denounce the formula (at its arguably greatest hour). I would, perhaps, rather not make the same mistake again.

On the other hand, we must observe the impossibility of the cry of Make America Great Again four years past, the working but never more cordial relationship with the old party of Lincoln - now largely and speedily Trump's party, from the Appalachian trail to the border states, where Latinos (sans X, when addressed as a subject, rather than object of faux-radical dogma) seems to surge behind the red banner comparatively to last time, the years of talk of rapists and judges nonwithstanding. He now commands a majority, frail but possibly not, in the Senate, loyal grassroots and legislators happy for a string or conservative victories in the Reaganite, Evangelical or Tea Party mold (harkening back to the first, or second model in my prediction of his style) and ready to excuse his very last vulgarity, patent lie or un-republican tendencies (small r; keeping for himself a royal family of the already degenerate waiting in the wings, The First Sexist's daughter clearly posing the favourite for a future bid). His media presence, while not as absurdly subsidised by the fray and numbed as it may or may not have numbed the general public, is consistent, as are - or maybe not - his policies. Biden's America, apart from a Great Restoral and a National Bidet of sorts (I promise, it is clearer in Swedish). This year not even his greatest, most vitriolic but yet un-moved foe has managed to underestimate his chances, only curse them. 

Germany's election three years of Hitler's rise to power. The Führer got 98,8 % of the valid votes in his (second) re-election, sowing the fruits of original fascism. Without blimps, will the apprentice manage half as well, asks not only I but the most fervent critics? Why are we, as the saying goes, even talking about it, if that is the model? What were the expectations, and opposition leader vigorous or otherwise, for the Reichstag of 1936?

My hunch, I must say, leans slightly towards re-election, while my senses have mandated - as they did, albeit clouded by a less mature judgment - a Democratic victory, with a likelihood of about 60 % (not 60 % of the popular vote, if we will ever see that again). These days, as the ballots are cast and counted in the millions - the vast majority in Biden's favour, prompting a struggle over the electoral system as well which, somehow, was unsurprising and may come back to haunt whoever the winner - I would put down that estimate to 52-48 in favour of the blue. Perhaps more; as the popular vote, with increasing discrepancy of a "popular" third party candidate, surges. In this moment, I would sooner see, and in effect may have, a fifty-buck note triple from Trump's reelection rather than a few drinks Biden's secure surge. (The stakes, I say without hesitations, are clearly off.) 

My best guess, then. In a Biden victory, presumably Ohio and Florida may turn - as must Pennsylvania - and the impossibly-red "blue wall" states of the north. With such an upset, if not dramatic for the new waves of the Obama era, a further "third term" will be secure. But we should, with that mentioned, debate whether it will be restoration, so desired by so many (of the loudly clamouring), but rather a synthesis. Biden, if obviously stagnant within a once-mediocre mind, with his charismatic and organisational habits intact, will be the impossible extension of the old world. What the new will hold, and which relics will be kept in silence from the impossible Trump administration, America's first postmodern president, remains to be seen. 

Next year's president? While I have cherished experience, going so far as hope for Jerry Brown in the past, I must say Biden's signa, and perhaps greatest strength, is his unflailing ability to say nothing and alienate nobody. Sadly, the predictable opposition was either too young or too old-er, if in a better state, I think. 

In the event of re-election, I suspect 2024 - with Pence or Trump at the wheel - will be both more ugly and tedious. Ugly, not because the prospects of eight years of the incomparable will prove too heavy to bear (they were not, typically, fatal to many deranged by Obama's election and great transformation that... sort of never was) but because the continued derangement syndrome of the political spectrum and faith in the institutions, sadly expected to outlast Trump's administration and his lifespan, the derangement of individuals and a postmodern celebrity culture only certain to increase. (This may, of course, be true times ten with a resurrection of the "establishment", that is, the parts that didn't ally with Donald the Caesar.) Tedious, because the next four will be a sheer daunting wait, nobody acting in concert with their stated expectations of a coup d'etat, and so forth, and reloading their guns for the presumed eight-year cycle throwback. And Pence, if nominated, will not make an energetic candidate, either for the presumed future Republican voter, nor for Trump's base. In this field of audacious, daring, brash wordlords (how's that for a neologism), he is something of a principled stool, a Stannis, if not exactly that. Unless already established, and should the long-expected derangement of the Trumpian mind - the only one, his only constituent - degenerate beyond the supposed low mark, there will be heavy pushes from within. 

That's really all. Apart from my smirking Nazi-Birgit 500-buck note in the red field, for the audacity (the odds being, by virtue of being skewed, quite favourable) as for the mixed feelings, I can't say more.